Don't expect market to go bust,

A doom-and-gloom report on the real estate industry caught the attention of the national media in early December, forcing down stock prices of major home builders.The report, published by the University of California, Los Angeles -- Anderson Forecast, predicted that the real estate and construction industries are headed for a slowdown that could last several years and result in the loss of 800,000 jobs, 500,000 in construction and 300,000 in financial services."Housing is in a perilous position," concluded UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Edward Leamer, but he added that the downturn in housing won't push the country into recession.Rather than embracing the Anderson Forecast's pessimistic views, however, the seven economists and real estate industry analysts contacted by the Herald-Tribune presented far less dour perspectives.All of them believe the boom that began in 2002, and resulted in 20 to 30 percent annual price increases, is over.Sales of existing homes and new construction are falling and inventories are on the rise. With interest rates expected to ratchet further upward, buyer demand will soften and so will prices.But there won't be a bust."Prices on average will flatten," said Hank Fishkind, an economist with Fishkind & Associates in Orlando. "Some niches, like condos, might see a reduction. But we're not going to see anything that's inconsistent with what Florida has experienced in the past."Here's what the seven experts contacted by the Herald-Tribune had to say:Grant I. Thrall, University of Florida geography professor, real estate market analystThrall believes real estate sales and prices will vary according to location and product type.Coastal areas, which have experienced the greatest appreciation in recent years, will stagnate, while interior areas will experience price increases.Prices in sub-markets, such as Gainesville and DeLand, will start to catch up with major markets, such as Jacksonville and Miami, Thrall said. Floridians will play a part in closing the gaps."People are looking for nontraditional second homes," Thrall said. "They're buying 20-acre horse farms in the Ocala area and cottages overlooking inland rivers.By contrast, Thrall believes the condominium market, especially in southeast Florida, is in for a big hit.