Florida Outlook looks bright!

Economic outlook brighter for Jacksonville, nation


Analysts voice optimism and uncertainty about jobs, rising prices in 2006.


By MARK BASCH, The Times-Union


A better unemployment picture in November improved the overall economic outlook, both nationally and in Jacksonville, according to indexes of future economic activity.


The U.S. Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.5 percent in November, following a 1 percent increase in October, the Conference Board reported Thursday.

In Jacksonville, an index of leading indicators compiled by the University of North Florida's Local Economic Indicators Project rose moderately in November, after falling in October.

The indexes are designed to project economic activity several months in advance.

"With three of the last four months implying positive movements in the Leading Economic Indicators, the outlook for the first half of 2006 looks positive" for the Jacksonville economy, said UNF economist Paul Mason, who coordinates the LEIP project.

Mason said energy prices and the outlook of consumers will drive the direction of the Jacksonville economy.

The main reason for the October decrease in the local index was a rise in initial claims for unemployment insurance. But the number of new unemployment claims fell in November, sending the index higher.

Overall, the leading index for the Jacksonville area rose 0.26 points to 109.69 in November, after dropping 0.73 points in October. Despite the October fall, the index has increased by 2.03 points so far this year.

The Conference Board, a New York research group that compiles the national index, also said that a decline in new unemployment claims to levels seen before the hurricane season was the main reason for the increase in its index of leading indicators. But Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said in a statement that the outlook is uncertain, despite the gains in the index the last two months.

"The Leading Economic Indicators have been anything but consistent -- flat to declining from July through September and recovering in October and November," he said.

Goldstein said rising energy prices could affect the outlook, not only because of the hits to consumers' wallets but also because high energy prices are affecting prices for raw materials.

The Conference Board also said its index of coincident indicators, which measures current economic activity, rose 0.2 percent for the third straight month. Its index of lagging indicators rose 0.6 percent in November after rising 0.7 percent in October.